Lauren Touchant
Professor of Political Studies Vancouver Island University
Amid rising U.S. tariffs and Donald Trump’s mounting threats to Canadian sovereignty, the 45th federal election on April 28, 2025 unfolded against an unprecedented geopolitical backdrop, one that significantly reshaped the political landscape in Nanaimo–Ladysmith.
In a surprising turn, the riding flipped to the Conservative Party of Canada, while the Liberal Party surged unexpectedly to secure a strong second-place finish.
If there was one predictable and consistent factor in the riding of Nanaimo-Ladysmith during this election, it was the fragmentation of the progressive vote, a concern echoed by thousands of residents throughout the campaign.
Although the division on the left among the New Democrats, Greens, and Liberals has arithmetically paved the way for Conservative candidate Tamara Kronis’s victory, a fuller understanding of the 2025 federal election outcome requires looking beyond vote-splitting.
One key insight lies in the slight increase in voter turnout, up slightly (+2%) compared to previous federal elections. The boost appeared to benefit both the Conservative and Liberal campaigns, reinforcing the increasingly binary nature of the race between the two parties that came to define the 2025 federal contest in Nanaimo–Ladysmith.
However, the results also point to a significant swing toward the Conservative Party, partly attributable to a 4.61% drop-in support for the People’s Party of Canada and a sharp collapse in the NDP vote. In Nanaimo-Ladysmith, the NDP’s decline reflected a broader trend across Vancouver Island, British Columbia, and Canada. A loss that has ultimately benefitted both the Conservatives and Liberals. While some NDP supporters appear to have temporarily lent their votes to the Liberal Party, the party may see some of that support return as the NDP searches for a new leader to replace Jagmeet Singh. Still, the noticeable shift of labour voters to the Conservatives signals a deeper challenge for the NDP, which appears to have lost traction with key segments of the working class, particularly in natural resource industries.
Post-election data also suggests that a notable portion of progressive voters may have chosen to stay home, potentially discouraged by a fractured landscape on the left. A sense that their vote might carry little weight amid the split between the NDP, Greens, and Liberals may have contributed to lower engagement.
The unexpected result of the Liberal candidate Michelle Corfield, who finished in second place with 20.7% of the vote, marked a significant breakthrough for the candidate who surpassed the previous Liberal benchmark set by Tim Tessier in the 2015 federal election. This outcome also casts a spotlight on the performance of Paul Manly, a well-known politician, city councillor and former Member of Parliament (2019 to 2021). Despite early efforts to rally strategic voters, citing internal polling that placed him in second position and data from Vote Smart Nanaimo, Manly finished fourth, losing 7.56% of the Green Party’s vote share and falling behind NDP candidate Lisa Marie Barron. His argument to work across the aisle failed to resonate with voters, who instead aligned their support along the binary national trend.
Riding the wave of a broader national trend and benefiting from the progressive vote split, Conservative candidate Tamara Kronis secured victory in Nanaimo–Ladysmith, just four years after narrowly losing the 2021 race by 1,199 votes. Her win serves as a reminder that Vancouver Island, including this riding, has a longstanding history of conservative support. The Conservative Party of Canada and its predecessors have consistently garnered over 20% of the local vote, with previous victories by the Canadian Alliance in 2000 and the Reform Party in both 1997 and 1993. Electoral history underscores that Nanaimo–Ladysmith is a highly competitive riding, where shifts between Conservative and NDP support shape the political landscape.
As parliament is set to be recalled this month, with a Speech from the Throne to be delivered by King Charles on May 27, the newly elected Member of Parliament for Nanaimo-Ladysmith, Tamara Kronis, faces the critical task of building trust within the community.
While the First-Past-the-Post system delivers a clear winner, the numbers tell a broader story: 48,064 voters, representing 64.83% of the electorate, did not support her campaign. Strong representation is not easy task; it requires balancing party priorities and often voting along party lines, while also genuinely listening to and addressing the diverse concerns of all constituents, two duties that will inevitably come into conflict considering the context. Whether this call is heeded remains to be seen. Canadians, including residents of Nanaimo-Ladysmith, have sent a clear message: they want unity and expect collaboration among all political parties in the face of unprecedented external threats from the United States. Time will tell, but one thing is certain, every elected official in on notice. Voters will have little patience for partisan posturing.
Made possible by: Covering Canada: Election 2025 Funding
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